For many eCommerce business owners, tariffs have become an unpredictable cost of doing business. One week your imported goods are duty-free; the next, they’re hit with a 10%, 25%, or even higher surcharge. These sudden changes can upend carefully built budgets, shrink margins overnight, and leave you scrambling to protect cash flow.
But what if you could see how tariff changes would ripple through your business before they hit your bottom line?
That’s exactly what you can do by combining Prediko and RunSmart by Projection Genie.
Step 1: Forecast Demand and Price Sensitivity with Prediko
When tariff costs rise, you face a tough call: absorb the extra cost or raise prices.
Either choice affects demand—and this is where Prediko gives you clarity.
Prediko helps Shopify-based eCommerce brands project future sales based on historical trends, seasonality, and product launches. But beyond showing where sales might go, it lets you test “what-if” assumptions about price changes so you can estimate how customers might react.
If you absorb the tariff (no price increase)
- You keep prices steady, so demand likely stays stable—customers don’t feel a change.
- You may even gain share if competitors raise prices.
- But margins tighten. Less profit means less room to reinvest in ads, new products, or inventory, which can slow growth later.
In Prediko, this scenario is your base demand case. You leave unit sales unchanged but later use RunSmart to see how higher COGS squeeze margins and cash flow.
If you raise prices to offset tariffs
- Prices rise while costs rise too, protecting your margin per sale.
- Some customers may pull back—demand often drops when prices climb.
- The question is how steep that drop will be.
In Prediko, you can model several demand curves:
- Raise prices by 10%, reduce forecasted sales 5%.
- Raise prices by 15%, reduce sales 10%.
This shows how sensitive your customers are to price changes.
If you do both—partially absorb and slightly raise prices
- A moderate price bump offsets part of the tariff without scaring off most customers.
- You stay competitive while preserving some margin.
You can model this in Prediko too—say, a 5% price increase with only a 2% expected decline in sales volume.
By experimenting across these options, Prediko becomes your demand laboratory. You can visualize how each pricing move affects revenue potential before committing to a real-world change. Once you’ve created those adjusted sales forecasts, you can see how they play out financially in RunSmart.
Step 2: Model Financial Impact with RunSmart
Prediko focuses on sales and demand. RunSmart connects those forecasts to your profits, cash, and overall financial health.
By linking directly to QuickBooks Online (with at least 24 months of data), RunSmart turns your Prediko forecasts into a complete three-statement model—income statement, balance sheet, and cash-flow forecast.
Here’s how they work together:
- Enter your Prediko monthly sales forecast into RunSmart.
- Apply COGS adjustments (for example +10%, +20%, or +30%) to simulate tariff-driven cost increases.
- Instantly see the effect on future monthly gross margins, profits, and cash runway for each scenario.
RunSmart quantifies what Prediko helps you visualize—revealing whether absorbing, passing through, or partially offsetting tariffs keeps your business financially stable.
Step 3: Explore Your Options Before Tariffs Hit
With both tools, you can create side-by-side scenarios and evaluate your choices clearly:
StrategyWhat You DoWhat RunSmart ShowsAbsorb the costKeep prices steadyStable demand but shrinking margins and shorter cash runwayRaise pricesPass costs to customersLower demand but stronger per-unit margin—shows where profits balance outCut other expensesDelay hires or trim ad spendHow cost cuts affect profitability and cashBlend approachesModerate price increase + leaner spendingThe healthiest mix of demand stability and margin protection
Each scenario updates your income statement, cash-flow forecast, and five financial health scores—Profitability, Liquidity, Efficiency, Solvency, and Capitalization—so you can see the full business impact.
Example: Planning Ahead Like a Pro
Heather runs a home-decor Shopify store using Prediko. Her products are imported, and a 20% tariff could take effect next quarter.
- In Prediko, she builds three forecasts:
- Base case — no price change
- Scenario A — 10% price increase, 5% dip in demand
- Scenario B — 15% price increase, 10% dip in demand
- She then creates three forecasts in RunSmart and enters each monthly sales forecast for each scenario and applies a 20% COGS increase to simulate the new tariffs.
- RunSmart updates all financial statements, KPIs, and health scores automatically across the 3 scenarios so you can compare them.
Maya discovers Scenario A preserves a healthy margin and steady cash flow, while Scenario B cuts demand too sharply. In minutes, she identifies the smartest balance—without spreadsheets or hiring an expensive financial expert.
Step 4: Turn Insights Into Action
OOnce you’ve tested your tariff scenarios, RunSmart helps you:
- Build budgets around new pricing and cost assumptions
- Track actuals vs. plan as QuickBooks data syncs automatically
- Spot variances early as QuickBooks actuals update, so you can adjust quickly when tariffs or other cost pressures start affecting your margins
Your sales forecasts may evolve, but your financial visibility stays crystal clear.
Plan Smarter, No Matter What Government Policy Brings
Prediko helps you understand how price changes might affect sales and demand.
RunSmart shows how those demand shifts impact profitability, cash flow, and the overall health of your eCommerce business.
Together, they give small eCommerce business owners the power to:
- Predict how tariff-driven cost increases affect pricing and demand
- See downstream effects on profit, liquidity, and long-term health
- Compare multiple “what-if” scenarios side by side
- Make confident, data-driven decisions—without relying on a CFO
You can’t control tariffs, but with Prediko + RunSmart, you can control how ready your business is for them.
